So far, so good. Predicting Missouri District football games

As most of you know, I spend most of my time rating basketball during the winter and AAU seasons.  While basketball tryouts started this week, I am playing with the algorithmic ratings model on Missouri football competitions.  Helps me fine tune the modeling mathematics for basketball.

The ratings model seems to be working very well, as I predicted 82% of district football games, not including Saturday's contests.  The spreads don't look too bad either.  I missed on more of the class six and class five games last night than the class one through four, which is surprising because the further out in the middle of the state I go, the less comparative scores I can get to calibrate across all teams.  The big upsets this week included Fox over Poplar Bluff, Vianney over Mehlville, Zumwalt West over Blue Springs and Liberty North over Rockhurst.

So here's the team predictions with the actual spread vs. what I had predicted.


Correct Total % Correct
All District Games 71 87 82%
Class 5 - week 2 play-offs
Actual Predicted
Jackson over Seckman by 41 58
Poplar Bluff over Fox by -16 9
Eureka over Oakville by 43 48
Mehlville over Vianney by -13 14
Chaminade over Webster Groves by 21 16
McCluer North over Parkway West by 25 8
Fort Zumwalt North over Smith Cotton by 49 64
Battle over Francis Howell North by 35 35
Waynesville over Springfield Central by 83 68
Glendale over Parkview by 56 41
Carthage over Branson by 38 22
Ozark over Nixa by -28 1
Fort Osage over Truman by 34 14
Raytown over William Chrisman by 19 32
Staley ovr Oak Park by 12 30
 Park Hill South over North Kansas City by -6 6
Correct Total Percent
12 16 75%
Class 6 - week 2 
District 1
DeSmet defeats CBC by  21 26
Francis Howell over Hazelwood Central by  36 28
District 2
Blue Springs beats Ft. Zumwalt West by 2TDs -3 14
Host Troy beats Blue Springs South by missed extra pt 5 1
District 3
Joplin beats Kirkwood by touchdown and field goal 21 9
Marquette beats Lindbergh by two TDs 10 14
District 4
Rockhurst edges Liberty North by two touchdowns  -3 16
Park Hill ekes out two point win over Raymore-Peculiar  -10 2
Correct Total Percent
5 8 63%
Class 4 - week 2 play-offs
District 1 Actual Predicted
Farmington High School over Festus by  16 27
Central (Cape Girardeau) beats Hillsboro by  40 17
District 2
Hazelwood East over McCluer by 9
St. Mary's dominates Affton by  21 13
District 3
Ladue beats Westminster by 38 25
Rockwood Summit tops MICDS by 14 15
District 4
Liberty (Wentzville) tops Kirksville by 29 31
Hannibal beats St. Dominic by 25 9
District 5
Camdenton over Washington by 49 25
Lebanon bests Helias by  30 10
District 6
Webb City beats Willard by  40 20
Bolivar ekes by West Plains by 15 3
District 7
Harrisonville edges Warrensburg 15 6
Grain Valley edges Grandview by 1 29 Pick Em
District 8
Lincoln College Prep beats Excelsior Springs 3 22
Smithville beats Platte County by -3 9
Correct Total Percent
14 15 93%
Class 3 - week 2 play-offs
District 1 Actual Predicted
Kennett over Potosi by 18 34
Central (Park Hills) beats Ste. Genevieve by -2 3
District 2
Roosevelt tops Sullivan by  5
St. Francis Borgia over St. Clair by 7 4
District 3
Trinity Catholic dominates U City by 43 47
John Burroughs beats Priory by 1 Pick Em
District 4
St. Charles West tops Mexico by -8 21
Lutheran St. Charles beats Moberly by 41 14
District 5
Blair Oaks tops Salem by 48 18
Buffalo beats Logan-Rogersville by 21 26
District 6
Mt. Vernon over Seneca by -2 1
Monett over Cassville by -13 1
District 7
Odessa topples Booneville 48 32
Center beats Southern Boone by 1 1 Pick Em
District 8
Savannah trounces Cameron by 42 36
Chillicothe edges Benton by  30 8
Correct Total Percent
12 16 75%
Class 2 - week 2 
District 1 Actual Predicted
Scott County over Central (New Madrid) by  38 6
Caruthersville over St. Pius X (Festus) 11 35
District 2
Lutheran North rolls over Cuba by 68 64
Lift for Life Academy defeats Duchesne by 18 14
District 3
Ava beats East Newton by   28 33
Liberty (Mountain View) edges Willow Springs by -8 4
District 4
Fair Grove beats Versailles by   28 25
Lamar over Warsaw by 44 5
District 5
Centralia defeats Christian by  -6 8
Hermann beats Hallsville by 42 4
District 6
Clark County beats Macon by 38 20
Palmyra upsets Monroe City by  22 10
District 7
Summit Christian Academy beats Knob Noster by 32 16
Lafayette County trounces Hogan Prep Academy by 42 30
District 8
Maryville takes down Lawson by  48 23
Lathrop ekes by Richmond by  36 2
Correct Total Percent
13 16 81%
Class 1 - week 2
District 1 Actual Predicted
Valle Catholic roasts Malden by  66 36
Hayti drops St. Vincent by 46 29
District 2
Thayer storms Cabool by  6 19
Pierce City pierces Miller by 32 19
District 3
Lincoln moves past Cole Camp by  29 8
Lockwood overcomes Skyline by -32 7
District 4
Adrian drops Wellington-Napoleon by 36 39
Windsor beats Crest Ridge by a FG 28 3
District 5
Marceline defeats Carrollton by 37 4
Sweet Springs over Slater by (error in original post) 12 13
District 6
Brentwood drops Harrisburg by  43 34
South Callaway wins over South Shelby by a FG 7 3
District 7
Mid-Buchanan drops East Buchanan by  27 33
Hamilton/Penney squeezes by Plattsburg by 26 5
District 8
Putnam County drops Scotland County by  29 3
South Harrison over Milan by 24 5
Correct Total Percent
15 16 94%
All District Games 71 87 82%

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