Missouri High School football playoff predictions revisited

UPDATED 12/2/2019
Weekend results were close to form....
Class 6 - Congrats to DeSmet who came back to beat Joplin
Class 5 - my fav Jackson rolls, FZN loses close one to Carthage.  Jackson will beat Carthage by 30 in final.
Class 4 - Webb City rolls over Ladue, Platt Co. upsets St. Mary's.  Webb City wins umpteenth championship next weekend by 35.
Class 3 - Odessa trounces Kennett, Cassville ekes by Trinity.  Odessa all the way next weekend by 40.
Class 2 - Lutheran North downed Lathrup, Ava beat Clark County.  LN beats Ava by two touchdowns for another championship.
Class 1 - Lincoln took down Marceline but cannot get past Valle Catholic, perennial champion who beat down Mid-Buchanan.

Predictions last week - 9 out of 11 correct for 82%.
Overall predictions for play-offs - 248 out of 308 for 80.5%.





Orignal post
It was a wild weekend of Missouri High School football action and, for the most part, went true to form.... or should I say, close to my algorithm based prediction model.  I missed on a couple of games in class 4, but predicted 16 of 22 or 73% of the games correctly.  Even had a few point spreads that were on target.

Here's my scores for each class and I am reposting the prediction with the actual spread.  I will follow up this post later this week with an updated ratings for all classes but I am putting my favorites for next week into the comments below.

Overall, I have predicted 80% of 297 district and play-off games for all classes of eleven man football in Missouri.  That's 239 right out of just under 300 contests.

Total Prediction accuracy 239 297         80%

I think I am ready to sign off of football predictions and start hitting the Missouri basketball ratings algorithm.

Stay Tuned.
Prediction Accuracy
Class 6 2 2 100%
Class 5 3 4 75%
Class 4 2 4 50%
Class 3 3 4 75%
Class 2 3 4 75%
Class 1 3 4 75%
Total Correct 16 22 73%

Class 6 -   11/22/19 Spread Actual
De Smet rolls on the road
De Smet (149) over Raymore-Peculiar (118) 34 37
Joplin ends FZW season with big road win
Joplin (126) over Ft Zumwalt West (112) 11 21
Correct 2 2 100%
Look for De Smet to roll over Joplin in the championship game by 23 points.
Class 5 -   11/22/19
Eureka might keep this close but Jackson prevails
Jackson (136) over Eureka (119) 20 15
Staley wins a close one on the road
Staley (105) over Raytown (99) 3             16
FZN gets a close road win at 'Nade
Ft Zumwalt North (122) over Chaminade (115) 3 3
Carthage ekes out a win at Glendale
Carthage (102) over Glendale (96) 3 30
Correct 3 4 75%

Jackson beat a great Eureka team and Staley will not be a problem.  Jackson by 31.

FZN eked by Chaminade and will handle Carthage easily by 20.

The championship game between FZN and Jackson will come down to the wire with the Indians winning by 3.



Class 4 -   11/22/19
Farmington wins on the road
Farmington (117) over St. Mary's (101) 13 -11
Grain Valley upsets Platte County on the road
Grain Valley (107) over Platte County (100) 4 -17
Liberty leaves Ladue's home field very disappointed
Ladue (122) over Liberty Wentzville (101) 24 47
Home field doesn't help Camdenton
Webb City (129) over Camdenton (123) 3 28
Correct 2 4 50%

The real championship game will be a let-down after Webb City edges Ladue by 3.  
Whoever wins that game will blow St. Mary's or Platte County out of the state by 30.  I will take St. Mary's by 1 over Platte County.



Class 3 -   11/22/19
Rough Riders dream season ends in Kennett
Kennett (115) over Roosevelt (104) 14 36
Savannah loses on the road
Odessa (131) over Savannah (114) 20 22
LSC stays close but no cigar
Trinity (113) over Lutheran St. Charles (111) 5 26
Cassville has no luck at Blair Oaks
Blair Oaks (120) over Cassville (91) 32 -7
Correct 3 4 75%
Kennett ended the Rough Riders dream season and Odessa will end Kennett's season by 16.  

Trinity will end Cassville's season by 22 but will run into a buzz saw when Odessa wins the championship by 18.



Class 2 -   11/22/19
Why is Lutheran North the visiting team?   LN wins big at Scott City
Lutheran North (132) over Scott City (110) 19 49
Summit Christian comes up short at Lathrup
Lathrup (116) over Summit Christian (102) 17 32
Road game, no problem for Ava
Ava (117) over Lamar (105) 9 12
Hallsville home field makes the difference
Hallsville (109) over Clark County (106) 6 -15
Correct 3 4 75%

Ava will take care of Clark County by 11 while Lutheran North will beat Lathrup by 16.  North handles Ava in the championship by 15.


Class 1 -   11/22/19
Thayer comes up short at Valle
Valle Catholic (117) over Thayer (111) 9 1
South Harrison can't compete on the road
Mid-Buchanan (97) over South Harrison (87) 13 27
Lincoln upsets Windsor on the road
Lincoln (111) over Windsor (106) 2 30
South Calloway enjoys home cooking
South Calloway (89) over Marceline (89) 3 -13
Correct 3 4 75%

Valle makes short order of Mid-Buchanan and then takes down Lincoln in the Championship by 6.  Lincoln make the finale by beating Marceline by 22.

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