Missouri HS Football Rankings - Comparing MaxPreps to Gramps algorithm

I think I have a pretty good comparative algorithm for rating teams, whether it be basketball or football, and it is comical to look at some authoritative website and see some very odd ranking results.  Am I right all the time?  No, but I get the point spread and predict the winner about 85% of the time.  When I look at MaxPreps rankings, whether it be football or basketball, I see a rating system that puts a lot of emphasis on winning record rather than strength of schedule.

So a 10-0 class one team with a much easier schedule is often in the top 20, when a 5-5 class six team is rated very low.  Based on my calculations, the 5-5 team should beat the undefeated class one team by 20 points, but Max Preps can't seem to figure that out.

So I took a look at the top 100 Max Prep teams and listed them with team records and their ratings vs. my rating and rank position.  There is about a 0.75 correlation coefficient but there are a few outliers that pushes the coefficient down.

Here's the comparison....and my predictions for all classes:

Class Six - De Smet, no contest.  If they play to form, they should win out by 20-25 points in every game to the final.  Sometimes, the stars align and a great team steps up.

Class Five - Jackson is the favorite.  They have been unstoppable and the only teams in their way of a state championship are Eureka and Fort Zumwalt North.

Class Four - Webb City has been the perennial favorite but will be challenged by Bolivar, West Plains, Camdenton and Ladue.  Webb City has the toughest district to get to the finals with Bolivar and West Plains.  Any of them could be a championship finalist.

Class Three - Odessa is my pick but they have to get by a great Blair Oaks team to be champs.

Class Two - Lutheran North is other worldly.  I don't see anyone challenging them.

Class One - Valle Catholic has been a perennial powerhouse but will be challenged by Pierce City, Thayer, Adrian and Hayti.  Put them in a hat and pick one.

MaxPreps Missouri HS Football ranking
#	School	Record	MP rating	My Rank	My Power rating	Class
1	De Smet Jesuit (St. Louis)	10-0	61.5	1	150	6
2	Liberty North (Liberty)	10-0	60.7	16	119	6
3	Christian Brothers (St. Louis)	8-2	53.4	7	125	6
4	Joplin	10-0	51.5	4	122	6
5	Jackson	9-0	50.3	3	136	5
6	Raymore-Peculiar (Peculiar)	8-2	49.9	25	115	6
7	Park Hill (Kansas City)	8-2	49.3	23	115	6
8	Staley (Kansas City)	7-2	48.0	45	106	5
9	Cardinal Ritter College Prep (St. Louis)	9-1	47.5	NR	NR	3
10	Lutheran North (St. Louis)	9-0	47.3	2	138	2
11	Webb City	9-1	47.0	6	125	4
12	Fort Zumwalt North (O'Fallon)	9-0	46.6	11	121	5
13	Rockhurst (Kansas City)	7-3	46.3	5	128	6
14	Howell (St. Charles)	9-1	41.8	9	122	6
15	Blue Springs	6-4	41.6	15	119	6
16	Eureka	8-1	40.4	19	117	5
17	Marquette (Chesterfield)	9-1	40.3	30	114	6
18	Lee's Summit North (Lee's Summit)	5-5	39.6	43	107	6
19	Camdenton	10-0	39.1	14	120	4
20	Blair Oaks (Jefferson City)	10-0	38.7	20	117	3
21	Chaminade (St. Louis)	6-3	38.4	29	114	5
22	Odessa	10-0	37.5	4	129	3
23	Carthage	7-2	37.5	64	102	5
24	Lee's Summit West (Lee's Summit)	4-6	37.3	60	102	6
25	Bolivar	10-0	36.9	10	121	4
26	Smithville	9-1	35.7	58	102	4
27	Maryville	8-1	35.5	37	111	2
28	West Plains	9-1	34.6	13	120	4
29	Kirkwood	6-3	34.3	24	115	6
30	Fort Zumwalt West (O'Fallon)	8-2	34.2	52	104	6
31	Raytown	7-2	34.2	63	102	6
32	Helias (Jefferson City)	9-1	34.1	53	104	4
33	Lathrop	10-0	33.8	46	106	2
34	Lebanon	8-2	33.6	31	114	4
35	Liberty	4-6	32.7	54	104	6
36	Farmington	8-2	32.3	18	118	4
37	Platte County (Platte City)	7-3	32.3	106	92	4
38	St. Louis University (St. Louis)	5-5	31.8	42	108	6
39	Lee's Summit	5-5	31.7	22	115	6
40	Ladue Horton Watkins (St. Louis)	9-1	31.7	12	120	4
41	Rockwood Summit (Fenton)	9-1	30.9	33	112	4
42	Blue Springs South (Blue Springs)	3-7	30.8	27	115	6
43	Kennett	10-0	30.2	26	115	3
44	Park Hill South (Riverside)	5-4	29.7	89	96	5
45	Battle (Columbia)	6-3	29.6	47	105	5
46	Ava	10-0	29.6	17	118	2
47	Willard	5-5	29.4	50	105	4
48	Grain Valley	7-3	28.7	108	93	4
49	North Kansas City	8-1	27.7	122	89	5
50	St. Clair	10-0	27.6	71	99	3
51	Trinity Catholic (St. Louis)	6-3	27.5	28	115	3
52	Savannah	8-2	26.5	32	113	3
53	Mt. Vernon	10-0	26.0	158	83	3
54	Monett	8-2	25.4	162	82	3
55	Rock Bridge (Columbia)	3-7	25.1	21	117	6
56	Fox (Arnold)	7-2	24.6	79	98	5
57	Centralia	10-0	24.4	69	100	2
58	Lincoln	10-0	24.2	113	92	1
59	Central (Cape Girardeau)	6-4	23.9	55	103	4
60	Troy-Buchanan (Troy)	7-3	23.7	57	103	6
61	Lindbergh (St. Louis)	5-5	23.3	51	105	6
62	Mid-Buchanan (Faucett)	9-1	23.2	73	99	1
63	Hazelwood Central (Florissant)	5-5	23.1	112	92	6
64	Thayer	9-1	22.4	39	110	1
65	Kearney	5-5	22.3	185	79	4
66	Webster Groves	5-4	22.3	80	98	5
67	Hazelwood West (Hazelwood)	8-2	22.2	90	96	6
68	Lincoln College Prep (Kansas City)	10-0	21.8	113	92	1
69	Washington	9-1	21.3	97	95	4
70	Cassville	8-2	21.2	209	73	3
71	Clark County (Kahoka)	9-1	21.1	40	109	2
72	Lawson	7-3	21.0	132	88	2
73	Lafayette (Wildwood)	7-3	21.0	84	97	6
74	McCluer North (Florissant)	6-3	20.8	81	97	5
75	St. Mary's (St. Louis)	8-2	20.7	70	100	4
76	Hallsville	8-2	20.6	131	88	3
77	Waynesville	6-3	20.0	95	96	5
78	Center (Kansas City)	9-1	20.0	68	100	3
79	MICDS (St. Louis)	7-3	19.9	83	97	4
80	Lafayette County (Higginsville)	8-2	19.8	126	88	2
81	Nixa	5-4	19.7	171	81	5
82	St. Francis Borgia (Washington)	8-2	19.6	56	103	3
83	Fort Osage (Independence)	5-4	19.4	175	81	5
84	Lutheran (St. Peters)	8-2	19.3	48	105	3
85	Lamar	8-2	18.5	136	87	2
86	Summit Christian Academy (Lee's Summit)	9-1	18.3	77	98	2
87	Boonville	7-3	18.0	78	98	3
88	Harrisonville	5-5	18.0	67	100	4
89	Grandview	5-5	17.9	105	93	4
90	Jefferson City	2-8	17.4	93	96	6
91	Richmond	7-3	17.4	49	105	2
92	Fair Grove	9-0	17.3	41	109	2
93	Union	6-4	17.0	87	96	4
94	Seneca	7-3	17.0	179	79	3
95	Warrensburg	7-3	16.9	100	94	4
96	Holt (Wentzville)	6-4	16.9	111	92	6
97	McCluer (Florissant)	8-2	16.8	133	88	4
98	Liberty (Lake St. Louis)	7-3	16.4	82	97	4
99	Hannibal	6-4	16.3	99	94	4
100	Knob Noster	8-2	16.2	170	81	2